一、The Biden administration decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and end the 20-year US military presence there. Please analyze the background of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the development of the power balance in this region between the U.S., China, and Russia from the “balance of power” theory. (20 points)

(二)請寫出原始分數之迴歸公式及標準化迴歸公式。

(三)本迴歸模式是否有效（顯著）？你如何判斷？

(四)決定係數是多少？請以本題中的變項解釋決定係數的意義。

(五)「共線性」的意義是什麼？本次分析有沒有共線性的問題？

二、In order to resolve the South China Sea dispute, China and the ten ASEAN countries signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002. This June (2021), the foreign ministers of China and the ASEAN countries held a special meeting in Chongqing to discuss how to implement this declaration to properly handle the South China Sea dispute. Please explore the changes in China’s perceptions of national interests and choices in the process of participating in the negotiation of this declaration from the perspective of neo-realism and neo-liberal institutionalism, and analyze them from the viewpoints of “relative gains” and “absolute gains.” (20 points)

三、The rivalry and confrontation between the United States and China are becoming increasingly heated. Some people believe that the current situation is quite similar to the pre-World War I period, and are therefore concerned about the possibility of the next great war. Please answer the following questions: (1) What were the causes of the First World War? Using your knowledge of modern diplomatic history, please cite at least three factors to explain them. (15 points) (2) What are the substantive issues that cause serious friction and confrontation between the U.S. and China? What are the potential flash points that may trigger a conflict between the two powers? Is there any similarity between the current situation and the situation before the First World War? Is it likely that the rivalry between the two powers results in another major war? Please try to use the ideas or theories of international relations to discuss the questions. (20 points)

一、拜登政府決定從阿富汗撤兵，結束美國在當地 20 年的駐軍，請從「權力 平衡理論」分析美國撤軍的原由，及美中俄三國今後在該區域的權力平 衡發展為何？（20 分）

二、為了解決南海爭端，2002 年中國及東協十國簽署了《南海各方行為宣言》 （Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, DOC），今 （2021）年 6 月，中國與東協各國的外交部長於重慶舉行特別外長會議 商討如何落實此宣言，以妥善處理南海爭端。請從新現實主義及新自由 制度主義的角度，探討中國在參與此宣言的協商過程中，其國家利益的 認知及選擇的轉變，並以「相對利益」（relative gains）與「絕對利益」 （absolute gains）觀點進行評析。（20 分）

(一)第一次世界大戰的起因為何？請運用近代外交史的 知識，至少列舉三個因素說明之。（15 分）

(二)目前美中之間在那些問題 上存在嚴重的摩擦與對立？可能的衝突引爆點有那些？當前的局勢與 第一次世界大戰前的局勢是否有相似之處？是否可能引發另一場大 戰？請運用國際關係的學理或理論討論之。（20 分