題組內容

3. (30%) The occurrence of large-magnitude earthquake in a city can be modeled as a Poisson process. 10 large-magnitude earthquakes occurred in City A within the last 10 years. If there is at least one occurrence of earthquake in a year, that year would be classified as a hazard year.

(i) (10%) What is the probability that there will be exactly one large-magnitude earthquake next year in City A?