申論題

3. (30%) The occurrence of large-magnitude earthquake in a city can be modeled as a Poisson process. 10 large-magnitude earthquakes occurred in City A within the last 10 years. If there is at least one occurrence of earthquake in a year, that year would be classified as a hazard year.

(ii) (10%) What is the probability that the next year would be a hazard year for City A?