申論題

Question I (12 points)
 Suppose that a military dictator in an unnamed country holds a plebiscite (a yes/no vote of confidence) and claims that he was supported by 65% of the voters. A human xights group suspects foul play and hires you to test the validity of the dictator's claim. You have a budget that allows you to randomly sample 200 voters from the country. You thus collect your sample of 200, and you find that 115 people actually votes yes. You approximate the probability that you would find 115 or fewer yes votes from a random sample of 200 if, in fact, 65% of the entire population voted yes.