3.若一假設檢定的顯著水準爲a = 0.05，而以樣本算出的P-値(p-value)爲0.03，貝(J下列敘述何者正確? (5%)
(A)應拒絕虛無假設
(B)檢定的型I誤差爲0.97
(C)檢定的型I誤差爲0.95
(D)檢定的型H誤差爲0.05

14. Which of the following is false? (A) In the short run, policymakers face a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. (B) The decrease in output associated with reducing inflation is less if the policy change is announced ahead of time and is credible. (C) Unemployment can be changed only by the use of government policy. (D) Events that shifts the loag-run Phillips curve right, shift the long-run aggregate supply curve left.

15. In the 1980s the U.S. budget deficit rose. At the same time the U.S. trade deficit grew larger, the real exchange rate of the dollar appreciated, and U.S. net foreign investment decreased. Which of these events is contrary to what the open-economy maci oeconomic model predicts concerning the eilects of an increase in the budget deficit? (A) The U.S. trade deficit grew. (B) The real exchange rate of the dollar appreciated. (C) U.S. net foreign investment fell. (D) None of the above are contrary to the predictions of the model.

1.令 A，B 爲兩獨立事件，其中(5%) (A)024 (B)0.14 (C) 0.65 (D) 0.76

2.下列有關於隨機變數彼此關係的敘述，何者正確？ (5%) (A)(B) (C)(D)

4.小華回答20題是非題全以猜答案方式做答，他至少答對十題(含答對十題)的機率爲 (5%) (A) 0.4119 (B) 1/2 (C) 0.5881 (D) 1-1/210 

5.若爲獨立且皆服從分布下列敘述何者錯誤？ （8%) n  (A)若則根據大數法則，當n趨近∞時，之値將近似3 (B)若之値將近似1/2 (C)若之値將近似3 x!  (D)若兩者之累 加分布近似

6•當給定一組獨立且皆來自N(μ,102)的隨機樣本；x1，x2，…，xn，已知常態母體的平均値//的95%信賴區間爲 (223.55,228.45),則下列敘述何者正確？ (8%) (A) n=30 (B)  (C)若常態母體的標準差不再是10，而是某個未知的常數ρ ＜ 10，μ的95%信賴區間會變寬 (D) μ 的 90% 信賴區間爲（223.9438,228.0563)

7•若X~N(0，l)貝(1下列敘何者錯誤？ (5%) (A) P(X ＞3) = P(X ＜ -3) (B) P(X ＞ 0) = 1 (C) P(-l ＜ A, ＜ 1) =0.6826 (D) X 具對稱鐘形分布

8.某甲利用觀測資料估計簡單線性迴歸模型則（α, β)的最小平方(least squai.e)法之估計量爲 (8%) (A) -5.0 and 2.5 (B) 2.5 and 1.5 (C) 1.5 and 2.5 (D) 1.5 and 0.5

1 下列何者不是巴納德（C. Barnard）所提出的觀點？ (A)互動體系論 (B)非正式組織 (C)權威接受論 (D)理性決策論