申論題

⑴英譯中：請將下列英文譯為中文。（12 分） Extensive research suggests that empty threats neither damage a state’s global credibility nor create pressures forcing it to follow through on those threats. Though questions of credibility are still debated by political scientists, history is littered with examples of false threats conveniently ignored. During the Cold War, the Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev repeatedly threatened to seize West Berlin. But Soviet actions betrayed his threats as empty, allowing Washington and Moscow to quietly sidestep the risk of war in Germany. He never felt politically forced to invade. And few doubted Soviet credibility a few months later when Moscow tried to install nuclear weapons in Cuba — an action that spoke louder and more clearly than any of Khrushchev’s words. That is the real lesson of the Cuban missile crisis.